The Strib made the strategic business decision to institute a subscription system for its online version, meaning readers can view up to 20 articles for free each month before hitting a “paywall” and being blocked from content. It took me two days to reach that limit, but I still haven’t subscribed. I suspect I’m not the only one.

For those who don’t subscribe to the print edition, online access will cost $.99 per week during a 10-week introductory period. Sunday-only subscribers can add online for $.29 per week. Those prices will go up after the introductory period, but the Strib hasn’t announced how high yet.

I don’t blame the newspaper for trying a pay model to help a business that’s been struggling for years. And frankly, if newspapers would’ve had the foresight to charge for online editions when they first launched, we wouldn’t think twice about paying in 2011. But as it stands, it feels like a takeaway.

I guess the fact that I haven’t taken action is part stubbornness and part laziness, but the biggest factor has been the many free alternatives. The Star Tribune needs to make its content irreplaceable for this model to work. That’s why The New York Times can get away with it — the writing is second to none.

If I want local sports coverage, 1500ESPN.com is doing a very good job — including regular contributions from current and former Strib veterans Patrick Reusse and Judd Zulgad. There’s CityPages.com for local entertainment news. Of course, there’s always the St. Paul Pioneer Press online. There’s plenty of good stuff coming from MinnPost and countless other sites. And if I absolutely have to read a Star Tribune article, I’ve been doing it on my iPhone or home computer.

Ultimately, it’s part of my job to keep up with the local news, so I’ll bite the bullet and become a digital Star Tribune subscriber. But the last few weeks have proven that I could live without it. And I wonder how many others feel the same.

Someday we may look at the Strib as a trailblazer in helping save daily newspapers, but I think it’s just as likely they’ll end up doing even more damage to their business. What do you think — is this a smart move? Will you pay?

Newspapers face a perfect storm of trouble: rising newsprint prices and transportation costs, coupled with declining readership and a shrinking ad base.

Though newspaper companies are working hard to increase their digital presence, they still get anywhere from 80 percent to 90 percent of their revenues from the struggling print editions.

But at some point, the expense and decreasing relevance of day-old ink on paper will force newspaper companies to severely curtail or even shut down their print editions.

And that day might come sooner than you think — perhaps within five years, and very likely within 10.

Gannett, the nation’s largest newspaper company, is a good proxy for the industry. According to a recent item in the Gannett Blog, readers are dropping their Gannett papers at a frightening rate.

Overall, Gannett newspapers lost 27 percent of their subscribers in the past decade. The drop occurred in large markets such as Phoenix and Indianapolis; medium-sized markets such as Des Moines and Rochester, N.Y.; and small markets such as Marshfield, Wis.

But that 27 percent drop hides an even uglier truth: Circulation held reasonably steady through the first half of the decade, then began falling dramatically after 2005.

Meanwhile, the newspaper industry has lost more than half its ad revenue since 2005 and the typical newspaper has slashed anywhere from one-third to one-half of its news employees.

Fewer readers, fewer dollars and fewer newspeople generating less news coverage. That’s not a recipe for success in either the long or the short term.

I actually believe that the Star Tribune and the Pioneer Press will last longer than newspapers in other markets. Readers here are loyal and both papers seem to have steadied themselves after the shocks of recent years. But even Nancy Barnes, the editor of the Star Tribune, told a professional group this month that the Strib’s weekday print editions might not be around much more than five years.

When print dies, newspapers will be forced into even more severe staff cutbacks. A handful of professional editors will oversee web content from poorly paid freelance writers and photographers, bargain-basement “content farm” news services and unpaid community members.

Newspapers will make increased use of computer programs that generate simple news, business  and sports stories from statistics and factual data – no human writing required.

They’ll fill their websites with sensational, titillating — and cheap — photo galleries designed to boost page views. Again, Gannett has pioneered this with the Metromix feature found on many of its properties’ websites – for example, this 54-photo gallery of Indianapolis Colts cheerleader tryouts.

When print newspapers die, their online brands will suffer, too. Right now, newspaper websites get great traffic, but still don’t bring in a lot of revenue. When their organizations lose that lucrative print revenue stream and cut back on news personnel and quality content, their websites won’t be as compelling as they are now. Traffic will drop as people find fewer reasons to visit.

Smaller weekly and community newspapers will last longer in print. Reader expectations are different and they’re already on a less-demanding publication schedule. And the handful of national papers like the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal will continue to be available in print – at a very hefty price for those who still want the paper edition.

But the age of the large, metro newspaper as a common news source for the majority of residents is drawing to an end – and that end might come more quickly than any of us could have imagined just five years ago.

This is John Reinan’s weekly marketing column for MinnPost.com.

This is John Reinan’s weekly marketing column for MinnPost.com.

The future of newspapers in the Twin Cities could hinge on events in Southern California. Sound crazy? Let me explain.

One of California’s largest newspapers, the Orange County Register, is for sale. Industry analysts expect a couple of companies to bid aggressively for it: Tribune and MediaNews Group. Both companies have extensive holdings in the Golden State, and the O.C. Register would help the winning bidder consolidate its position as California’s leading media company. News industry blogger Alan Mutter explains things in detail here.

MediaNews, you might recall, is the current owner of the Pioneer Press. If MediaNews adds to its already-large California holdings, then St. Paul would become even more of a corporate outlier. The Pioneer Press is the company’s only property in the Midwest, a lone ranger in an organization that has staked its future on the economies of scale offered by geographically clustering its news properties.

I suspect that if MediaNews buys the Register, it would be more inclined to look favorably at some kind of deal to dispose of the Pioneer Press. And in that case, the time might finally be ripe for the merger of the Twin Cities’ two major newspapers – either through a joint operating agreement or even an outright takeover, most likely by the Star Tribune.

We’re one of a handful of metro areas that still has two daily newspapers, and analysts have long speculated that we’d someday be down to one. The continuing struggles of the newspaper industry make that scenario more likely than ever.

Industrywide, newspaper revenue has dropped nearly 50 percent from its historic peak in 2005, and while other advertising media have begun a comeback from the recession, newspapers continue to lag. Several publicly traded newspaper companies reported single-digit revenue declines in the fourth quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of this year. That’s an improvement from the double-digit hemorrhages of 2007, ’08 and ’09, but it’s not encouraging at a time when other media have begun to show actual revenue gains – not just smaller losses.

While the Star Tribune made a good showing in 2010, it’s off to a slow start in 2011, as my MinnPost colleague David Brauer has reported. That could strengthen the case for the federal Justice Department approval that would be required for any kind of merger or takeover. (Brauer doesn’t agree with my overall analysis, however; read his reply.)

That’s where the other part of the Southern California equation comes into play. It’s hard for me to imagine a scenario in which the Star Tribune could buy the Pioneer Press unless the Strib can sell its land near the Metrodome for the $40-50 million price tag that’s been bandied about.

The only likely buyer for that land, at that price, is the Minnesota Vikings. And the Vikings won’t be buying the Strib’s property unless they get a deal for a new stadium. If they don’t get it, the team could wind up in Los Angeles, where an investment group has announced plans to build a new stadium to lure an NFL franchise back to the nation’s second-largest TV market. (It’s also possible, of course, that the Vikings could build a new stadium here on some site other than the Metrodome area.)

So if the Vikings do end up in California, the Star Tribune potentially loses out on a big payday. That would make it tougher – not impossible, but tougher — for the organization to make any deals involving a buyout of its rival.

For years, I’ve believed that the Twin Cities would inevitably end up with one newspaper. That’s been the trend nationwide for half a century. Why should we be the only place that bucks it?

Events in California could determine whether we finally succumb to that trend.

This is John Reinan’s weekly marketing column for MinnPost.com.

Recent developments in the media business offer some hope for the future of Minnesota’s two largest newspapers. But those welcome rays of hope ultimately could be dimmed by other, more powerful currents that threaten to drag down both of the old-media giants.

First, the good news: Last week, Apple and Google both announced new subscription services for tablet devices like the iPad. In return for a cut of the revenue, Apple and Google will provide an easy way for news consumers to pay for their favorite publications on a tablet.

I won’t go into the details of the competing services; you can read more about them if you’re interested. The main point is that old-media publishers now have a clear path to seek revenue from tablets, which many analysts see as the next great frontier in digital communication. Newspapers fumbled their opportunity on the existing Web by giving away their content for free; now they have a chance to make consumers pay for their news on these new devices.

I expect the Star Tribune and the Pioneer Press to take advantage of this opportunity, which should lead quickly to growth in their digital revenues.

But there are long-term trends that won’t be reversed by the addition of paying tablet readers. Among them is the continued growth of so-called “content farms,” which exist solely to churn out cheap and often worthless Internet fodder. The point of content farms is to deluge the Web with short articles that will turn up in searches– and provide a convenient location for related advertisements.

New-media companies are aggressively hunting for cheap content. That was the motivation for AOL’s recent purchase of the Huffington Post, and the merger of Tina Brown’s new-media Daily Beast with old-media Newsweek magazine.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a company like Yahoo make some sort of deal with one of the remaining newspaper chains, like McClatchy or Gannett, to provide content for the Web. And that’s where things begin to look dicey for the locals.

Old media have credibility and depth. But those are qualities not often valued by the Internet. Content farms like Demand Media and Associated Content have growing revenue and economies of scale– and they look to be the future of online content. It may be that many of the remaining old media will be folded into the content farm empires, bringing a veneer of respectability to the new media for a while before they’re ground down to the lowest common denominator.

The Star Tribune is a stand-alone company. The Pioneer Press is a lone outpost whose owner, MediaNews Group, has been aggressively clustering its other properties in close geographic proximity to get economies of scale.

The McClatchy Co. sold the Star Tribune four years ago in the same way a balloonist jettisons cargo to stay aloft. Now, McClatchy itself could become the target of a bottom-feeding Internet giant that needs the cheap content its nationwide stable of news gatherers could provide.

But that scenario doesn’t do anything for the Star Tribune, which has no economies of scale or national reach. The Strib has to survive on whatever Minnesotans are willing to pay for it. And tablet readers– even thousands of paying ones– might not be enough to keep it afloat as print readership continues to decline.

The Strib last week announced positive financial results for 2010– suggesting that, for now, it’s gained a foothold. But that foothold came only after hundreds of jobs were slashed, with pay and benefits cut for those who remain. Meanwhile, revenue continues to fall, albeit at a slower rate of decline.

As part of a larger entity, the Pioneer Press might be in better shape, but not if its corporate owner makes a deal to provide content focused on areas where its other properties are clustered, such as the San Francisco Bay area. In that scenario, the Pioneer Press could find itself cut out of the action.

I hope both newspapers gain significant revenue from a new generation of tablet readers. But it may not be enough for them to prosper long term against the Internet’s growing stable of content sweatshops. Ultimately, the fate of both newspapers depends on whether Minnesotans– both readers and advertisers– value them enough to pay the costs needed for the newspapers to survive.

Essentially, Bob Harper — famous for his trainer stint on NBC’s “Biggest Loser” — was in Minneapolis, decided to eat at one of his favorite restaurants Bar La Grassa, had Amex call to make the reservation a few hours in advance, and did not succeed. Thus, he tweeted to his 120,000+ followers:

Followed by:

Of course, the longer-than-140 characters story isn’t quite so… Per Rick Nelson at StarTribune.com:

It started when Bar La Grassa manager Michael Lecy fielded a late-afternoon call from the concierge service at American Express. Could a party of five take a 7:30 table that evening? Sorry, we wish we could accommodate you, but we can’t, was the response. “I couldn’t even get a table for five if I was calling on a Saturday for that night,” Becker said with a laugh.

AmEx followed with a second call (“They said, ‘The customer is willing to release his name,’ ” said Becker) and a third, but there were no tables at 7:30. Honest. “The only way we could accommodate them is if we screwed someone else over, and we don’t do that,” said Becker. Other available times were offered but not accepted.

The customer? Bob Harper, aka Bob the Trainer on NBC’s “The Biggest Loser,” in town for a Mall of America appearance.

This epic event occurred last Saturday, Jan. 22. When all was said and done, Bar La Grassa talked about 15 Bob-ites off the fence after they angrily called in. Fast forward to today’s post, 10 days later. Owner Isaac Becker says:

I’m over social media.

Noooo!

Now, let’s be honest: we at Fast Horse like our jobs, which almost always is about communicating, and often involves communicating online (you can tell I’ve recently had to break down my job to my parents). But, even I’ve had those moments where I wistfully recall a world pre-Facebook where everyone’s moves weren’t followed on a live basis, where a small misstep could be taken away with a control-z and wouldn’t live on in forever, online perpetuity.

I get where Isaac Becker is coming from.

But throwing away all of the tools at your disposal for sharing your story online is, well, akin to throwing away the baby with the bathwater. Sure, Bar La Grassa is one of the most popular restaurants in Minneapolis, but what about those sad, freezing cold midweek nights two years from now? What about an unjustified tweet like Bob’s that doesn’t get a blog post from the Star Tribune? What happens with a news outlet writes an unfavorable story, instead of defending your restaurant? How does Bar La Grassa share its story? How does Bar La Grassa hear what its customers are saying (yes, we’ve heard of this thing called a telephone)?

Social media, at its finest, isn’t about the tools. It isn’t about having 2,000 or 120,000 followers. You don’t HAVE to have a Twitter account or Facebook page. But you do need a plan to combat the Bob Harper’s of the world — and it often involves a social media strategy of monitoring, responding and sharing.

OH – and let’s be honest: while the 15 phone calls from angry Bob fans haven’t destroyed Bar La Grassa’s fan base, the resulting post in the Star Tribune with the 100+ comments and counting? That’s social media.

Ruth Bachman and Amy (Photo: Tom Wallace, Star Tribune)

Just want to give a quick shout-out to our friend, Ruth Bachman, subject of a nice feature by Jeff Strickler in today’s Star Tribune. Ruth serves with Jorg on the board of the University of Minnesota Foundation, and we’ve been helping her spread the word about her efforts to raise $1 million for research at the U’s Masonic Cancer Center as well as its Center for Spirituality and Healing.

Ruth, who lost her left hand to cancer, is donating her fees as an inspriational speaker to these institutions, which helped her in her time of need. She’s developed a fascinating metaphor, the hourglass, to describe her experience. Visit her website and hire her to speak to your company or organization!

The paper either laid off or accepted buyouts from 18 copy editors, representing more than 50 percent of the remaining copy-editing staff. I thought those people had already left the building.

Not so, my friend said this morning. The people who took buyouts left on Tuesday, and the people who were laid off will leave after today’s shift. So, the newspapers of this weekend and next week will be the first test of the new system, which will rely on reporters and line editors to do more of the grammar, accuracy and style editing that used to be handled by copy editors.

If you’re someone who glories in catching errors in the newspaper, get your red pencil ready.

SO, a hydra-headed task force headed by a couple of noted economists — Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers — will try to guide the rescue of the American auto industry.

The group will be advised by officials from the treasury, labor, transportation, commerce and energy departments, as well as from the National Economic Council, the White House Office of Energy and Environment, the Council of Economic Advisers and the Environmental Protection Agency. That’s quite a collection of experts.

But I’d feel better if just one of them knew how to sell cars.

The mess in Detroit isn’t primarily a manufacturing problem, a management problem, or a wage and expense problem. Tougher managers and more tightfisted bean counters aren’t going to fix what’s broken in Detroit. It will take deep and innovative marketing knowledge.

To read the rest, click here.

You have to understand how surprising that was. I’m 51 (today! thankyewverymuch), and I started reading the Minneapolis Tribune in Fergus Falls when I was 6 years old. You could get it delivered every day back then, 200 miles from Minneapolis.

Paisley (R), youthful savior of the Star Tribune.

My wife and I both spent more than 20 years in the newspaper business, including almost five years at the Star Tribune for both of us. So for us to consider forgoing daily newspaper delivery was really an astonishing development. We hadn’t actually decided to quit getting the paper, but we were willing to do without it for awhile and kind of see how nature took its course.

Well, nature stepped up quickly in the form of our 9-year-old daughter, Paisley. She reads the comics every day and especially loves the Sunday funnies. She noticed right away that the paper wasn’t coming, and started badgering us. Still we delayed.

Finally, after about a week, she said, “We have to get the Star Tribune! That beautiful crackle of paper in the living room is like music to my ears!”

I sent in my renewal that day. The Strib showed up again on my doorstep yesterday.

Now this is a fascinating look at the birth of old-media doom: a 1981 report by a San Francisco TV station about people getting newspapers over their home computer!

It runs about 2 minutes. At 50 seconds in, you’ll see that among the first 8 newspapers available over CompuServe was the “Star and Tribune.” So, far from being behind the curve on electronic media, here’s proof that our own Strib was actually one of the very earliest adopters.

Unfortunately, their 1981 efforts aren’t helping them in 2009.

P.S. The reporter notes that about 500 of the 2,000 home computer owners in the Bay area have signed up for the service. The Bay area’s population in 1981: about 3.6 million.